the shrewdness of apes

note 1: OK, High Point has gone down meaning that i need to hope for an upset of Winthrop to at least keep my numbers right. you'd think that might discourage me from continuing to make predictions, but you'd be wrong. on the positive side, Georgia Tech justified my love with their win over UNC tonight. i think that puts them in, but they should probably go ahead and beat BC Saturday just to be safe.

note 1a: sorry to those of you with no interest in College Basketball. this will be over in a few weeks.

note 2: does anyone else think the officiating in a lot of these games has been pretty shaky? OK, not exactly fresh territory, but while watching "Throwdown Thursday" (ugh) on ESPN, i was struck again by the number of seemingly ridiculous fouls: guys brushing against guys and getting called, defensive guys without their feet set drawing offensive foul calls, guys with their hands up in the air and standing perfectly still getting called when a guy jumps into them, players just flopping all over the place in general - the whole thing is starting to resemble a South American soccer game (see video of a terrible dive here). also, why don't they ever call traveling anymore? OK, that's enough. it's time to tackle....

The Big East
This league raided Conference USA after some of their teams defected to the ACC, giving them a ridiculous 16 teams. Now, some teams don't even play each other in the regular season and 4 teams get left out of the conference tourney. There are 4 teams tied for 7th place in the conference with 8-7 records. This gets me to another pet peeve: the unbalanced conference schedule. It used to be that all the teams in a conference played each other the same number of times, so it was easy to just look at the conference standings to get a general idea of team quality. Now you have to follow so closely to understand who played who, whether they played them at home, on the road or both and how that compares to the other teams in the league. Did one of those 8-7s come against a soft conference schedule (Providence)? Did someone have to play Pitt, Georgetown and Notre Dame on the road (West Virginia)? Can't we just break this into 2 conferences, or at least into an East/West thing like the SEC or Big XII? What a pain in the ass. But moving on....
The Chaff: Cincinnati, Rutgers, South Florida, Seton Hall, St. John's, UConn
It's been a tough season for New Jersey, and the NYC metro area in general (13-32 aggregate in the Big East). For a while I was contemplating doing a poll of the NYC-area teams along the lines of the DC Area Poll. Then I realized that Fordham would be the undisputed #2 team in such a poll (behind Hofstra) and quickly released the hounds on the idea. UConn's loss to George Mason last year carried over to this year in the form of a 6-12 record since an 11-0 start. All of their conference wins have come against this group except for a W over Syracuse. Cincinnati must have made their players start going to class or something.
How Many of These Guys Are Named Corey?: Providence, West Virginia, DePaul, Villanova
I could spend 45 minutes and 1,000 words trying to differentiate these guys, but nobody really wants that. Here's the thing: at least one of these teams will make the tournament. Right now, WVU (win over UCLA) and Villanova (wins over Oklahoma, Georgetown, Louisville and Notre Dame) have the best shot, but it could be whoever goes the deepest in the Big East tournament. If DePaul goes on a tear and makes the final they might sneak in.
Picking Out Their Dancing Shoes: Marquette, Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pitt
Man this conference bores me. I really find nothing to get excited about here. I've been giving Goergetown short shrift all year, and even now that they've come around to tie for first place I remain unconvinced that they can win more than 2 tournament games. They have the highest Offensive Efficiency in the country, but I'm not convinced they have enough outside threats. Among players who average significant minutes, their leading 3-point shooter is Patrick Ewing, Jr.! Notre Dame has put up some real stinkers in an 18-point loss to Georgetown that wasn't that close, a loss to South Florida and another to St. John's. Marquette (who I'm partial to for name-related reasons) has lost 4 of 5 and gets Pitt on Saturday. Louisville has come on strong and doesn't have any bad losses but I've got Pitino issues. Syracuse will play only 9 total road games, 8 of which were in conference and the other of which was against Canisius, also in upstate New York. Pittsburgh has been the conference leader all season, so I guess they should be the favorite to go deep in to the NCAAs.

Big Ten
All right, another uninspiring conference with four 8-7 teams! Why am I doing this again?
At Least We Have Hockey/Football/Academics to Fall Back On: Minnesota, Penn State, Northwestern
I feel like I've seen highlights of Penn State losing about 15 close games this season. They're always in the verge of an upset, only to fade in the end. Then I looked and they do have a few close games, but not really very many. Maybe those were first half highlights I was seeing. Outside of their wins over Purdue, Penn St. and Northwestern, Minnesota has only one conference game decided by less than 10 points. Northwestern is 3-0 this year when scoring at least 70 points.
Mmmmmmm......Mediocrity: Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St., Purdue, Illinois
These teams are all separated by one win in the standings, so again I'll try to keep this brief. Iowa's got 13 losses and can be safely ignored. People are getting excited about Michigan after they beat Michigan St., but let's talk about their 3-8 road record for a second. And Purdue's 2-8 road mark for that matter with the wins coming over N'western and Penn St. And then let's talk about the NIT. Michigan St. is only 2-6 on the road (could you imagine if these major conference teams actually had to play road games in November and December? Think the gap between them and the mid-majors might close a bit?) but their wins are a bit better than Purdue's. Illinois doesn't have as many good wins, but I think they're in at 10-6 in the conference if they beat Iowa on Saturday. Indiana should also get in at 10-6, and I credit them for at least scheduling a few road games against Duke, Butler and Kentucky, even if they lost them all. It might serve them well in March, but they're 5-5 record in their last 10 doesn't inspire much confidence.
El Jefes: Wisconsin, Ohio St.
Did anyone watch these two play on Sunday and think to themselves "Well I can't wait to see that again." I'd seriously rather watch a PBA skills competition. Have you ever seen those, where they're throwing balls over chairs and through their legs (warning: a bit loud)? Pretty great. If that game was the best they have to offer, I think it's very safe to say that I'll be skipping any Big Ten tournament games I flip past. Also, I think Greg Oden when he has his scraggly beard looks like Leonard Smalls from Raising Arizona.

Maybe sorta? I swear it made sense when I thought of it.

I'm giving them 5 bids for now and I'll use Purdue to cover for the probability that Winthrop out-and-out takes the Big South. Though it would be awesome to see VMI sneak in and freak out some #1 seed with their manic style for 30 minutes (Dave, I think this is the link you were looking for).

TSOA's picks thus far:
ACC: UNC, Va. Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Duke, BC, Ga. Tech
A10: Xavier
Big South: Winthrop, High Point, VMI?
Big East: Georgetown, Pitt, Marquette, Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova
Big Ten: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan St., Purdue
Spots awarded: 36 out of 65 (including 14 conferences that will definitely only get 1 bid)