the shrewdness of apes

i've been remiss in this space to discuss the almost unthinkably bad World Cup draw in which the USA was placed in Group E with Italy, the Czech Republic and Ghana. the dreaded Group of Death. OK, there's no easy groups but one look at Group A (Germany/Costa Rica/Poland/Ecuador), Group B (England/Paraguay/Trinidad and Tobago/Sweden), Group F (Brazil/Croatia/Australia/Japan), Group G (France/Switzerland/S. Korea/Togo) or Group H (Spain/Ukraine/Tunisia/Saudi Arabia) and it's not hard to think that having 3 of the top 12 teams in the world in one group is a bit unfair. and from all acocunts, Ghana are no slouches either. all the kvetching, however, obscures the fact that the U.S. will have to play well no matter who the opponent is. if they can pull off two draws and a win, they'll move on. anything less and they have to hope for some help. if the quaterfinal game with Germany in 2002 proved anything, it's that the Americans can hold their own with a top tier team while this statistical analysis shows that soccer provides a better chance of an upset in any given game than do any of the 4 major North American sports. the study was done by Americans, so i'd say there's no anti-American bias built in to the study, but 2 of them are from academia so that might not hold water. damn pinkos.

anyway, if there's one game that's going to cause some consternation among American observers, it will be the Iran-Mexico game. who to root for, the religious extremists who would love nothing more than to hold the threat of nuclear weapons over our heads (and who embarrassed us in 1998) or the southern neighbors who would love to watch us Yanqui bastards choke on our tacos? perhaps there's some significance in the game being played in Nuremberg (as is the USA-Ghana collision) and justice will find a way for both teams to lose.

meanwhile, the African Cup of Nations which started yesterday in Egypt and every group is a Group of Death with at least 1 World Cup qualifier and 1 runner-up. Group D with Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal has been christened the toughest, but Group B is no cakewalk with qualifiers Togo and Angola already having lost to Cameroon and Congo DR and Group A has hosts Egypt and surprises Ivory Coast who are doing their best to ingore the unrest at home by beating a tough Morocco 1-0. check the full standings here. none of these games are being broadcast here in the U.S. except on some channel called Telesud available only on the Dish Network; i'd like to see some of these teams play before the World Cup, but if the quality of the broadcast is anything like what is was during WC qualifying, you're probably better off just reading the recap. hopefully things will improve by the time 2010 rolls around, when the tournament is held in South Africa. according to this article, that tournament has already raked in more sponsorship dollars than this year's, and there may be an extra spot awarded to an African team in the interim.

in England, the run to the FA Cup continues next weekend with the 4th round of games. there are at least a few matchups of smaller teams (Stoke v. Walsall, Colchester v. Derby, Brentford v. Sunderland) that guarantee to keep some hope of major shocks alive into the round of 16. and if Chelsea can lose to Everton and Man U can fall to Wolverhampton, then all the better.

finally, those of you who were following the MLS draft live (i thought about skipping work, but decided not to) already know that with the first overall pick, the MetroStars selected former Padres outfielder Marvell Wynne who will be making his pro soccer debut at age 46, while the title of Mr. Really Really Irrelevant went to Aaron King of N.C State, chosen by Los Angeles with the 48th pick.