the shrewdness of apes

i've been remiss in this space to discuss the almost unthinkably bad World Cup draw in which the USA was placed in Group E with Italy, the Czech Republic and Ghana. the dreaded Group of Death. OK, there's no easy groups but one look at Group A (Germany/Costa Rica/Poland/Ecuador), Group B (England/Paraguay/Trinidad and Tobago/Sweden), Group F (Brazil/Croatia/Australia/Japan), Group G (France/Switzerland/S. Korea/Togo) or Group H (Spain/Ukraine/Tunisia/Saudi Arabia) and it's not hard to think that having 3 of the top 12 teams in the world in one group is a bit unfair. and from all acocunts, Ghana are no slouches either. all the kvetching, however, obscures the fact that the U.S. will have to play well no matter who the opponent is. if they can pull off two draws and a win, they'll move on. anything less and they have to hope for some help. if the quaterfinal game with Germany in 2002 proved anything, it's that the Americans can hold their own with a top tier team while this statistical analysis shows that soccer provides a better chance of an upset in any given game than do any of the 4 major North American sports. the study was done by Americans, so i'd say there's no anti-American bias built in to the study, but 2 of them are from academia so that might not hold water. damn pinkos.

anyway, if there's one game that's going to cause some consternation among American observers, it will be the Iran-Mexico game. who to root for, the religious extremists who would love nothing more than to hold the threat of nuclear weapons over our heads (and who embarrassed us in 1998) or the southern neighbors who would love to watch us Yanqui bastards choke on our tacos? perhaps there's some significance in the game being played in Nuremberg (as is the USA-Ghana collision) and justice will find a way for both teams to lose.

meanwhile, the African Cup of Nations which started yesterday in Egypt and every group is a Group of Death with at least 1 World Cup qualifier and 1 runner-up. Group D with Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal has been christened the toughest, but Group B is no cakewalk with qualifiers Togo and Angola already having lost to Cameroon and Congo DR and Group A has hosts Egypt and surprises Ivory Coast who are doing their best to ingore the unrest at home by beating a tough Morocco 1-0. check the full standings here. none of these games are being broadcast here in the U.S. except on some channel called Telesud available only on the Dish Network; i'd like to see some of these teams play before the World Cup, but if the quality of the broadcast is anything like what is was during WC qualifying, you're probably better off just reading the recap. hopefully things will improve by the time 2010 rolls around, when the tournament is held in South Africa. according to this article, that tournament has already raked in more sponsorship dollars than this year's, and there may be an extra spot awarded to an African team in the interim.

in England, the run to the FA Cup continues next weekend with the 4th round of games. there are at least a few matchups of smaller teams (Stoke v. Walsall, Colchester v. Derby, Brentford v. Sunderland) that guarantee to keep some hope of major shocks alive into the round of 16. and if Chelsea can lose to Everton and Man U can fall to Wolverhampton, then all the better.

finally, those of you who were following the MLS draft live (i thought about skipping work, but decided not to) already know that with the first overall pick, the MetroStars selected former Padres outfielder Marvell Wynne who will be making his pro soccer debut at age 46, while the title of Mr. Really Really Irrelevant went to Aaron King of N.C State, chosen by Los Angeles with the 48th pick.

Posted by Jamie at 05:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (10)

heard on the radio Friday: "certainly no one is talking about any sort of military strike against Iran." [paraphrased]

tonight's headline: "Senators say military strike on Iran must be option"

buckle up, everybody it looks like the Democracy Express has another stop to make. the fact that Bush has spent 4 years going after a faux-threat in Iraq while ignoring a serious threat in Iran seems like it will reflect poorly on him in the history books, successful elections or no.

elsewhere in failed U.S. policies of the past, Chile further cemented Latin America's full swing to the left, electing a socialist woman to the presidency continuing the tradition of leftist governments that have ruled the country since the illegally installed (with covert CIA help), human-rights violating murderer Augusto Pinochet stepped aside in 1990 after 17 brutal years in office. that legacy of attempted U.S. influence to resist Marxism of other left-of-the-spectrum governments south of the border continued into the 80s with the well-publicized, illegal sale of arms to Iran to help fund the Contras' insurgency in Nicaragua and has now come back to haunt us in the form of numerous heads of state who, to put it nicely, don't care for us very much (unless they can show us up by offering oil to low-income Bronx residents). meanwhile we're now trying to stop another insurgency from toppling a legally elected government in Iraq - an insurgency that might get help from Iran if they get pissed off (moreso) at the U.S. during this process. elsewhere, an angry Iran subjected to sanctions may also cause another rise in oil prices and/or encourage new attacks on the U.S. and Europe, neither of which would be particularly great for the economy. as Earl could no doubt explain to Nixonites and Reaganites in simple terms, karma's a bitch. let's just hope it doesn't decide to take us all out now that we have to try to prevent Iran from arming, rather than arming them covertly.

Posted by Jamie at 11:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Idiotarod 2006 is officially on. January 28th, hundreds of entrants, shopping carts, costumes, decorations, sabotage, 5 miles from Brooklyn to Manhattan. if ever an event cleaved to the adage that "it's not whether you win or lose", this is it. check out some pictures of last year's event and then go on and enter.

Posted by Jamie at 11:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

the Weather Channel's "Local on the 8s" forecast is the staid and safe choice when you want to know whether to wear a hat or pack an umbrella for the day. it's kid-tested, mother-approved, recommended by 4 out of 5 dentists, and according to Peter Travers of Rolling Stone, "if you only check one forecast this year, make it this one". plus you never have to wait more than 10 minutes for it (unless the tiresome "Storm Stories" is on), and they've even started including traffic information. as with anything deisgned to appeal to the broadest possible audience, the background music tends to be innocuously irritating smooth jazz or occasionally some funked-up Muzak. maybe some Vince Guaraldi around the holidays. you put up with it to get what you need, like listening to some inane conversation about their trip to Buffalo while in line at the DMV. so imagine the shock at hearing the opening riff of Devo's "Gut Feeling" over the display of the current conditions. perhaps the folks at TWC are trying to hip things up, if playing a 25+ year old song by a band of spuds from Akron can count as hip. perhaps the strains of "Psycho Killer" will accompany the next Winter Weather Advisory.

the Weather Channel and weather.com have long been the epicenter of weather coverage and information, creating their own world where it's all about reporters getting pummeled by wind and rain to get you a first hand look at whatever devastation nature is visiting upon some unfortunate outpost. really, how long until this fake article about Weather Channel Addiction becomes real? but for those with a craving for a real inside fix from the world of weather, then Weather Underground is the place to go. on the local forecast page, at the bottom of the Forecast for [Your Location Here] is a small unassuming link that says "Scientific Forecaster Discussion (NWS)". therein lies a treasure trove of machinations that go into creating the forecast, direct from the folks at the National Weather Service. as someone who got so sick of incorrect or too-sporadically-updated forecasts that i once started a spreadsheet to track the accuracy of forecasts made 1, 3, 5 and 10 days ahead of time, i find it highly engaging to read the internal dialogue that goes on between the meteorologists who are trying to combine multiple models and their own experience into something resembling accuracy. if the forecast is the table of contents, then this is the meaty part of the story where our heroes fight mother nature and Old Man Winter to safely deliver us from precipitation. some current highlights:

"Very difficult short term forecast on our hands for tonight inland as column temperatures waffle back and forth either side of the 0c line. There's really no telling at any exact point in time what type of precipitation will be falling and exactly where."

"Its hard to say whether or not accumulating snow will get into the coastal areas before the good forcing moves east. It may not snow...but think there could still be a period of sleet or ice by Tuesday evening even at the coast. The midnight shift will be able to look at the whole suite of 00z data and use them to make a better decision than I can at the moment (0230z)." (extreme nerdiness note: time indicated with a "z" refers to Greenwich Mean or "Zulu" Time).

oh the drama! will the snow fall mainly inland or will the coasts also get a dusting? can the midnight shift solve the puzzle before the freezing rain wreaks havoc on the evening commute? and what of the potential for flooding and coastal erosion? tune in tomorrow! i love the more personal touch that these discussions convey. so much more interesting than a 30% chance of rain on Friday or what have you. so if you're looking to learn what GFS stands for, or if you're dying to know what's going to happen when that ridge builds in behind the departing low, then this is the place for you.

as a final note, i also love the National Weather Service logo. i can't think of another government agency with anything quite like it.

bonus link: Google's first listing for "Local on the 8s" takes you to Weather Mario's forecast for the mushroom kingdom (warning: link contains automatic sound). Sonic has a page too.

Posted by Jamie at 12:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)