the shrewdness of apes

there are just 5 spots left now as the home-and-home playoff series began on Saturday. my earlier predictions proved surprisingly cogent, as i went 4-for-5 in Asia, was mostly right in Europe, and correctly predicted Trinidad heading to a playoff. Uzbekistan let me down, as did Chile, but still not bad overall. so without further ado, your guide to Wednesday's games written by someone who will be unable to watch any of them (quick perusal turns up only reruns of Trinidad vs. Bahrain anyway).

Australia v. Uruguay - La Celeste won the first leg 1-0 at home, but now face an arduous trip to Sydney for a game 4 days later and 13 time zones away. the Socceroos tried to claim the mental edge by taking a charter flight back home replete with massage tables (but presumably no Foster's). apparently, Uruguay doesn't care about its team because they all had to fly coach. they didn't win a single road match during South American qualifiying going 0-6-3, but they only need a tie here. still, i like the Aussies to either win outright by scoring twice or by netting one and then taking the penalty kicks. i would have considered getting up at 4am for this one just to relive the fun of 2002, but i don't see it in the listings so i might actually be productive at work instead.

Bahrain v. Trinidad and Tobago - Trinidad payed a terribly lackluster match at home and needed an unreal strike from Christopher Birchall - who had never set foot in Trinidad before the Qualifying began, but who's mother is Trinidadian and who is Trinidad's first white player in something like 60 years - just to escape with a tie that means they likely will have to win to advance to the World Cup for the first time in their history. i don't know much about Bahrain, but i still think that Uzbekistan got hosed and i have numerous co-workers from Trinidad, so i'm rooting for the Soca Warriors.

Czech Republic v. Norway - the Czechs won on the road 1-0 in a game in which the losing goalie was given the "Man of the Match" award, meaning it should have been worse. can the Norwegians become the first team to overturn a deficit in a European home-and-home qualifiyer? seems highly unlikely.

Turkey vs. Switzerland - the Turks really hurt themselves by falling 0-2 in the first leg, including a late 2nd half goal. Switzerland allowed just 7 goals in 10 matches leading up to this, so expect them to pack it in on defense and hope to make the game as boring as possible.

Slovakia v. Spain - speaking of boring games, Slovakia will need to win this game 4-0 in order to advance. Spain allowed but 3 goals in going 5-5-0 during the first stage of qualifications, so i think i like my chances in Tuesday night's Mega Millions drawing better than i like Slovakia's.

after this, it's a long, cold winter until things kick off on Munich on June 9th. not to mention a long 4 years for those that get left behind. i'll be back with more analyses once the groupings are announced on December 9th.