the shrewdness of apes

things are getting interesting in the Republican controlled Congress these days as many of the the more moderate members feel they have more to gain from standing their ground on certain issues rather than blindly following the lead of Bush and Co. this played out in an interesting way this week as the House dealt with a budget bill that included drilling in the Arctic while the Senate Finance Committee faced the possible extension of Bush's welfare for millionaires, i mean "tax cuts".

normally i could care less about much of the inner workings of government, but i do have a very real interest in the issue of oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) - a priority for Bush since he took office, as he has a lot of palms to grease in the energy industry. i'll set aside for now the ridiculousness of the hearings that Congress held on gas prices and the record profits of the world's largest oil companies in the 3rd quarter of '05 ($9.9 billion for ExxonMobil alone) that might actually be a harbinger of their doom. the fact of the matter is that we are fast reaching the tipping point where oil production will be unable to keep up with the demands of a rapdily growing world population, with resulting shortages and skyrocketing prices. U.S. oil production has dropped by 3 million barrels per day in the past 20 years (about 30%) while imports have risen from about 4 million to 12 million barrels per day during that time. this is where the ANWR comes in.

with fewer reserves of oil untapped, the energy companies are under increasing pressure to develop new sources. so for them, drilling in the pristine Arctic wilderness makes sense - they're attempting to ensure the long-term health of their companies. the problems arise when you start to take a look at just what new exploration and drilling in Alaska will actually produce. first, any production in the area won't likely begin until 2013 at the earliest, with peak production not reached until 2025 or so. keeping in mind that these are estimates that could easily be high or low, the best-case scenario for peak ANWR oil output is about 1.5 million barrels per day, with the average scenario predicting closer to 1 million. by 2025, we will be importing an estimated 70% of our oil. adding ANWR oil to the mix lowers that to 64% at best while also reducing any trading imbalace by $6-$15 billion. so basically we would be providing less than 10% of our actual oil needs while having a minute impact on world oil prices and our balance of trade. oh, and we'll need 10-20 years just to do that - time in which market forces will likely continue to wreak havoc on oil prices and time in which a more forward-thinking government might invest in resources that might still be around a century from now. oh, i almost forgot, it would also mean encroaching on one of the last few wildernesses that we have left. you know, polar bears and caribou and all that jazz.

so it was heartening to see a group of 22 Republican representatives refuse to back the budget bill before them until the provision for drilling in the ANWR were removed. this led to the House leadership pulling the budget off the floor entirely when many reps were still not sold on the cuts in Medicaid, food stamps, student loans and farm supports that were part and parcel of the bill. without those provisions, many hardline conservatives would not support the bill. meantime in the Senate, the permanent extension of the tax cuts could not get out of committee, and even a proposal to extend them for just a year did not get off the ground. again the hardliners were at odds with the more moderate sectors of the ruling party.

so where does this leave all of this legislation? it's hard to say. both sides of the Republican party seem unwilling to budge and there will also be the distractons of Supreme Court nominee hearings and a Defense bill that is getting contentious over the revelation of secret prisons ans suspension of due process. so i'm cautiously optimistic that the specter of Arctic oil drilling may be beaten back fr good and that the Democrats may be able to seize on their chance to turn the tide in next year's general elections. but i've been disappointed before and the Democrats have yet to offer anything resembling a cohesive policy vision, so there's still lots of room for things to go sour.