Dunn in
Pedro Martinez just gave up a 3-run home run to Adam Dunn in his first inning of work as a Met. even knowing that Pedro has started slow sometimes in years past, i think that this is a really bad sign for him. i am predicting that this is the year that his decline begins in earnest (i.e. ERA above 4, <30 GS), and the contract that the Mets gave him is going to look terrible by this time next year. i think the Mets finish last in the NL East as the progress of Beltran, Reyes and Wright fail to match the declines of Pedro, Floyd, Piazza, Glavine, etc.
before some more predictions, a quick note about steroids: the fact that the first guy caught under the new testing is Alex Sanchez (4 lifetime HRs, a career SLG% of .364, last year's AL leader in bunts for base hits*) has to be one of the funniest things of all time and just goes to show how little hard evidence there is about what steroids can contribute to a player's game. if anything, maybe this will make people take a bit harder look at what non-sluggers might be using them and why and own up to the fact any linkage between steroids and increased HR rates is logically flawed at best.
at any rate, i spent a little time with Baseball Prospectus' Predictatron and was a bit surprised at some of the standings i came up with. here's some highlights:
~ the Bowa-less Phillies win it all
~ the A's get buried by the Angels in the AL West and miss the playoffs again
~ the Twins parlay Johan's left arm all the way to the World Series
~ NL Central: St. Louis first, Houston last, Milwaukee second
~ Nationals above .500
~ Giants under .500
~ Red Sox win division, Yanks get Wild Card
~ worst team in the AL: White Sox
the 2005 t.s.o.a. award winners:
AL Cy Young - Johan Santana
AL MVP - Vladimir Guerrero
AL ROY - Jeremy Reed (OF, SEA)
NL Cy Young - Jacob Peavy
NL MVP - Bobby Abreu
NL ROY - J.J. Hardy (SS, MIL)
* by rights, there should be clamoring for this entry in the record books to have an asterisk next to it. not that anyone actually gives enough of a shit.
Comments
yeah, pedro sure looked terrible after that homerun to dunn.
Posted by: dan | April 4, 2005 04:43 PM
Up here in RSN we like to believe that ex-players take a little of that Red Sox spirit wherever they wind up. Enjoy the no-chin wonder that is a season with Pete M.
Posted by: WisdomWeasel | April 4, 2005 04:55 PM
just like i wasn't basing my prediction on one game of Pedro's season (ERA so far: 4.50), Dan, i don't think you want to get to excited based on a couple of good innings. if you want Pedro's season to be considered a success, you better hope the pitchers who come in to pick him up after ~100 pitches/6 innings can do a better job than they did today. the fact that the Mets sent Heath Bell down in favor of the likes of Roberto Hernandez speaks volumes about the quality of those making the decisions for this team.
Posted by: jamie | April 4, 2005 06:19 PM
you weren't basing your prediction on one game, but you did use one single at-bat as a sign in favor of your prediction.
i'm also not sure how "yeah, pedro sure looked terrible after that homerun to dunn" can be taken as being too excited. sure it was one game, but pedro did pitch pretty damn well.
what has heath bell done so far in his career anyway? aside from give up 5 HR in 24 innings?
also if you want to discuss histronics, that's my area of expertise!
Posted by: shr | April 5, 2005 01:53 PM
alright jamie, i've had enough of you!
deride me or my youthlarge, that is one thing.
but you've crossed the line when you start badmouthing the poor man's lee smith -- roberto hernandez!
Posted by: dan | April 5, 2005 05:11 PM
point taken. i should have clarified that my predictions pre-dated Mr. Dunn's home run. that was simply a convenient entry point to the conversation.
as for Heath Bell, despite those 5 HRs he gave up less than a hit an inning in the majors last year, while striking out more than 1 batter per inning. in his minor league career, he has averaged well above 1 K per inning pitched while demonstrating good control (K/BB ratio of 3.98), which is the most reliable indicator or major league performance that there is. he's also 27 years old, which means that he's still on the upswing of the typical pitcher career arc.
of course, all of this is just going to be egg on my face when somebody remembers to dig this post up in October.
Posted by: jamie | April 5, 2005 09:31 PM
i do think heath bell will be on the team by mid may. he has an option left. the other guys don't. they just want to sift through what they have to see what veterans they can or can't depend on. bell will be up soon.
Posted by: dan | April 6, 2005 04:33 PM
Roberto Hernandez
1.1 ip
4 batters faced
3 ks
0 hits
0.00 era
2005 baby!
Posted by: dan | April 6, 2005 10:59 PM
i just knew you were going to say something about that today. i give Tax Day as the over/under date for when Hernandez's ERA rises about 4.00 for the first and last time this year.
Posted by: jamie | April 7, 2005 11:34 AM