wagering your future
lost in all the pre-election build up was a small article in Monday's New York Times about the website longbets.org, a "public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions" designed to "improve long-term thinking". that may sound a little dry, but in practice it seems like it could be quite fun:
Ted Danson, the actor who portrayed Sam Malone, is making Red Sox fans proud for a different reason: as a result of Boston's World Series victory last week, Mr. Danson won the first bet ever decided at Long Bets (longbets.org), an online prediction site that focuses on scores that may not be settled for 45 years, if ever.
The Web site, which is popular among the Silicon Valley digerati, is a spinoff from the Long Now Foundation in San Francisco, whose aim is to foster long-term thinking and stimulate discussion about the future. Members make predictions, typically about topics like immigration or artificial intelligence, and other members challenge them, accompanied by a minimum wager of $200. Unlike most betting parlors, however, these contest are rarely about sports. Alexander Rose, executive director of the Long Bets Foundation, said all the predictions had "some social or scientific value."
The Red Sox bet slipped in because Michael Elliot, the editor of Time Asia, argued that the United States soccer team would win the World Cup before the Red Sox won the World Series. In an argument posted on the site, he said his larger point was that immigration and technology would improve the quality of American soccer, but that the curse of the Bambino was "one of those mystical truths that are beyond the reach of human intervention."
Mr. Danson's counter was also scientific. "Statistically, scoring goals is harder than hitting a home run and in the World Cup you have the whole WORLD against you," he wrote. In baseball, he argued, "the Red Sox only really have to beat the Yankees."
perusing the list of bets on record is endlessly fascinating with everything from "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150" to "By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists." and you can peruse a list of predictions awaiting a challenge (the minimum bet is $200 on each side with any proceeds going to a charity of the winner's choice) or post your own prediction for a $50 fee. all predictions "must be societally or scientifically important' so they probably wouldn't have accepted my "Ben Roethlisberger will become a better QB than Philip Rivers of Eli Manning" prediction.