the shrewdness of apes

before the 2003 season the Braves traded Kevin Millwood to the division rival Phillies for little-known catcher Johnny Estrada. to the world, this looked like a simple salary dump for the Braves as Millwood was coming off a monster season (18-8, 3.24, 178 Ks) and was due for salary arbitation. i don't recall one single person giving Braves GM John Schuerholz any benefit of the doubt despite his track record of 10+ consecutive division titles. so where does the trade stand now? Estrada spent last year torching AAA to the tune of .328/.393/.494 (BA/OBP/SLG) while Braves C Javy Lopez exploded for 43 HR and subsequently was allowed to leave via free agency. this year, at age 27 (the traditional peak year in a player's career) he's continued to spank the ball like a submissive congressman, hitting .339/.391/.502 as the Braves' everyday catcher. Lopez, now with the Orioles, has played well (.316/.365/.474) but letting him leave looks like a smart decision. the fact that the Braves saved about $8M by doing so makes it look even smarter.

as for Millwood, his 2003 numbers looked a lot more like numbers from 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2001 than those from 1999 and 2002. his 4.01 ERA was right about at the league average. his 14-12 record is in line with the fact that the Phillies were just above .500 on the year. now there is value in a guy who can throw 222 IP, even if those innings are league-average. but with each passing year, it looks like his dazzling '99 and '02 will be the aberrations in his career trend line. he's doing nothing to disprove that this year with his 4.93 ERA and BR/9 in excess of 12.5. so this trade certainly deserves a re-evaluation, though it's long-term value will depend on whether Estrada can keep putting up numbers at anywhere near his current clip.

Moving to a more recent trade, the Marlins dealt Derrek Lee, the 1B of their World Series champs to the Cubs in exchange for perennial prospect Hee Seop Choi. the Cubs, having sat through a season in which Dusty Baker refused to give Choi any regular playing time and held him out of the playoffs in favor of Erick Karros and Randall Simon, decided they would go for a proven veteran rather than their young star (whose minor-league track record pretty much indicated his readiness). understandably, the Cubs thought that this trade might give them the push necessary to get into the World Series while perhaps weakening the team that beat them to get there in 2003. but after signing Lee to a 3-year deal in February, it's going to cost them about $25 million to find out. meanwhile Choi plays for about $310,000 this season and is still years away from a big free agency payoff (though he will make more once he's eligible for arbitration). thus many people again saw this move as primarily financially motivated from the Marlins standpoint, if still well short of the type of payroll slashing that went on in 1998 (fucking Huizenga - what a prick).

so how's has the trade looked so far? Choi's .267/.383/.524 (13 HR, 33 RBI) looks pretty damn good, even compared to Lee's .305/.381/.516 (10 HR, 46 RBI). and Lee plays in a better hitter's park to boot. the only thing holding Choi back is the fact that they won't let him face left-handed pitching. but at a significant cost savings, you have to think the Marlins got a better deal by getting the younger player (by 3+ years), just entering his prime. meanwhile the Cubs pay more for the same production and are left with a starting lineup dominated by right-handed hitters. in the standings, the two teams are within a couple games of each other in the wildcard race, with the Marlins tied for their division lead with the pitching-needy Phillies and the Cubs trailing the Cardinals in the Central by 3.5 games. it will be interesting to see how this all plays out by the end of the year.